【社会】印度经济每年增长超过 7%。为什么印度人对未来如此悲观？

​【来源龙腾网】

正文原创翻译：

India economy is growing over 7% every year. Why are Indians so pessimistic about the future?

印度经济每年增长超过 7%。为什么印度人对未来如此悲观？

原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

I am Brazilian and the last time we consistently were growing over 7% was in the early 1970s. We celebrate just not being in a recession.

India has been growing ridiculously fast consistently like China was in the 90s and 2000s. India is also has way better relations diplomatically world wide and likely will never have to deal with trade wars like China has. I predict that India will be a middle income country in 10 years or so.

But when I read comments on this sub it seems like most Indians are very pessimistic about the future, why is that?

我是巴西人，我们上一次持续增长超过 7% 还是在 20 世纪 70 年代初。我们只要没有陷入衰退就值得庆贺了。

印度的持续增长速度快得离谱，就像中国在上世纪 90 年代和 2000 年代一样。印度的外交关系在世界范围内也要好得多，而且很可能永远都不用像中国那样应对贸易战。我预测，印度将在 10 年左右成为中等收入国家。

但当我读到这个板块上的评论时，似乎大多数印度人对未来都非常悲观，这是为什么呢？

评论翻译

bakait_launda

Most of our growth is in Service sector which does not employ as many folks as compared to other sectors. So as our young population increases, there is a mismatch in our job market.

Lack of manufacturing sector leaves a huge skill mismatch. The semi skilled and unskilled are not the getting the jobs they want.

Even thought govt is promoting entrepreneurship (especially in MSME sectors), it difficult for small firms to compete with big conglomerates.

7% growth is good, but the effects are not trickling down (Cantillon effect) and the economic wounds of Covid have not healed.

Add to this, the usual corruption, Political culture &amp Climate change induced disasters. Basically we are walking on a tightrope. The Industry, Government and people have to balance it so that growth becomes more equitable.

我们大部分的增长来自服务行业，而与其他行业相比，服务行业并没有雇佣那么多员工。因此，随着年轻人口的增加，我们的就业市场出现了不匹配。

制造业的缺乏导致了巨大的技能不匹配。半熟练和非熟练工人没有获得他们想要的工作。尽管政府在推动创业（特别是在中小企业领域），但小公司很难与大型企业竞争。

7%的增长是好的，但其效果并没有向下渗透（坎蒂隆效应），而且新冠疫情带来的经济创伤尚未愈合。再加上常见的腐败、政治文化和气候变化引发的灾难。基本上，我们正走在一根绳索上。工业、政府和人民必须平衡，以使增长变得更加公平。

zenFyre1

Yes, Indian economy is very skewed and not balanced well. The lack of well paying, high skill blue collar jobs is a real economic disaster. Service sector is growing well due to connections with the international economy.

是的，印度经济非常不平衡。缺乏高薪、高技能的蓝领工作是一场真正的经济灾难。而由于与国际经济的联系，服务业发展良好。

PlaceOk2031

We aren’t utilising our young Labour force, China was ready when the population boom happened, they knew that large scale manufacturing is the way to go. We on the other hand are busy in doing cash handouts. It is anyways too late now we should have thought about this 20 years ago.

我们没有充分利用我们的年轻劳动力，中国在人口激增时就做好了准备，他们知道大规模制造才是王道。而我们却忙于派发现金。无论如何，现在为时已晚，我们早在 20 年前就应该想到这一点。

原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

lurid_dream

China could do that given their 1 party system. Political parties in India keep fighting to stay in power and have no interest in uplifting the nation.

中国可以做到这一点，因为他们实行的是一党制。印度的政党一直在为保住权力而斗争，对提升国家利益毫无兴趣。

EasyRider_Suraj

Chinese economy is a result of cold war geopolitics. Sino Soviet spilit made US becoming allied with China and helped them get all of the manufacturing shifted from their puppets like Japan and Korea.

中国经济是冷战地缘政治的结果。中苏分裂使美国与中国结盟，并帮助他们将所有制造业从日本和韩国等傀儡手中转移到中国。

thecreativesboy

Very well put. Also to add, India is at the right time to have a demographic dividend to pay off. India needs at least 8-9% yearly growth minimum otherwise it will get old before getting rich and will be trapped in middle income countries like Thailand and Malaysia.

说得好。另外，我还要补充一点，印度正处于人口红利期。印度至少需要 8-9% 的年增长率，否则就会未富先老，沦为泰国和马来西亚这样的中等收入国家。

Top-Faithlessness785

Tho the overall growth is 7%(just consuming growth), the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer…as much as it’s now ‘worse than the colonial era’ as many says.

虽然总体增长率为 7%（只是消费增长），但富人越来越富，穷人越来越穷……正如许多人所说，现在的情况“比殖民时代还糟糕”。

liberalparadigm

Everyone is getting richer. Wealth compounds. Even the poor accumulate farmland, have houses in villages, and have access to free/subsidized food.

每个人都越来越富。财富不断累积。即使是穷人也会积累农田，在村庄里拥有房屋，并获得免费/补贴食品。

vsa467

A metric that measures this is the Gini index. Feel free to check that out yourself for the UK and India.

Firstly, stop comparing pre-independent India with now. That’s just comparing us to absolute garbage of times. The quality of life of most humans has increased over time. But the rich reap many more benefits from opportunities and economic growth than the poor.

Poverty has always been a problem in India, but it does not disappear even when the country experiences peak economic growth and development.

基尼系数是衡量这一现象的指标。你可以自行查看英国和印度的基尼指数。

首先，不要再拿独立前的印度与现在相比了。这只是将我们与绝对垃圾的时代相比较。随着时间的推移，大多数人的生活质量都在提高。但富人从机遇和经济增长中获得的好处要比穷人多得多。

在印度，贫困一直是个问题，但即使国家经济增长和发展达到顶峰，贫困也不会消失。

原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

BreadfruitRich2175

The per capita income of middle class, salary class and poor is stagnant. Govt is squeezing more taxes from salary class but rich politicians, bureaucrats and elite business tycoons growing 100% YOY

中产阶级、工薪阶层和穷人的人均收入停滞不前。政府从工薪阶层榨取更多税收，但富裕的政客、官僚和商界精英却年年翻倍增长

Eastern_Can_1802

Because it’s the rich elites lining their pockets and starving everyone below them. The economy isn’t really growing just rich people’s pockets.

因为只有有钱的精英们赚得盆满钵满，饿死了他们下面的所有人。经济并没有真正增长，增长的只是富人的口袋。

broken_soul535

There are many reasons. I’ll blame the most in the media.

Lots of Indians are only educated with a degree. They actually lack skills. And not everyone is a hard-worker. I’d blame society for it. Older folks tell kids that after school and college there isn’t a need to study and work as hard.

原因有很多。我把大部分原因归咎于媒体。

很多印度人只受过学位教育。他们实际上缺乏技能。而且并不是每个人都勤奋工作。我认为这应该归咎于社会。老人们告诉孩子们，上完中小学和大学后就不需要再努力学习和工作了。

andrewgarfield07

Jobless growth, excessive quotas in jobs &amp admissions,real inflation much higher than official data, infrastructure improvement isn’t as fast as expected,cities are still dirty,no sidewalks, no civic sense,public transport is overburdened etc etc. Real estate is not even affordable to top 5%. Growth is only for those who want to invest.

失业在增长、工作和招生的固定配额却越来越多、实际通货膨胀远高于官方数据、基础设施改善速度不如预期、城市依然肮脏、没有人行道、缺乏公民意识、公共交通超负荷等。房地产连前5%的人都买不起。增长仅对那些想要投资的人有利。

Big-Bite-4576

only the rich are growing, income inequality is growing, basically 1% are growing richer more than the billionaires of USA while bottom 70% of the people are living a sub-saharan lifestyle, suffering from unimaginable poverty

只有富人在增长，收入不平等在加剧，基本上前 1% 的人比美国的亿万富翁还要富有，而 70% 的底层人民却过着撒哈拉以南的生活，遭受着难以想象的贫困。

ozneoknarf

OP

Damn I just searched the income inequality in India. Top 1% has 22% of all income, in Brazil it’s 13% and I though that was a lot. What I don’t understand is with so much inequality why is crime rates in India so low when compared to other third world countries? I felt way safer in poor areas in India than in Brazil.

艹，我刚刚搜索了印度的收入不平等情况。收入最高的 1%占总收入的 22%，巴西是 13%，而我之前已经觉得这很多了。我不明白的是，既然存在如此严重的不平等，为什么印度的犯罪率与其他第三世界国家相比如此之低？在印度的贫困地区，我感觉比在巴西更安全。

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